If Social Security is part of your monthly budget — and for most of us it is — here is something worth knowing. Early estimates for your 2027 raise are already coming in, and they look a little better than what you got this year.
Your 2026 increase came in at 2.8%. The new projections put the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, somewhere between 3.2% and 3.6%. Nothing is final yet, but the early signs point higher.
How the COLA Gets Calculated
By law, your annual Social Security COLA is based on inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Specifically, it uses the Consumer Price Index figures for July, August, and September, pulled from a version of that report called the CPI-W.
The BLS just released the July numbers. Consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year ago. That is down slightly from the 3.5% reading in June.
What Three Groups Are Estimating
Three organizations have crunched the July data and released their early projections. Here is where each one lands:
- Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB): The lowest estimate of the group, at 3.2%. The nonpartisan organization noted that CPI-W was flat in July and is up 3.4% over the past year.
- AARP: The advocacy organization, which works on behalf of people over 50, estimates 3.5%. This is the first time AARP has released a COLA estimate before the third-quarter inflation reports come out. AARP VP for Financial Security Rich Johnson said the goal is to give people reliable information sooner so they can start planning. He also noted that food and energy prices over the next two months could still move the number.
- The Senior Citizens League (TSCL): The highest estimate, at 3.6%. That would be 0.8 percentage points above this year’s raise. TSCL calculated that if that rate took effect today, the average monthly benefit would rise by $69.75, from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28.
A Note on Uncertainty
TSCL executive director Shannon Benton pointed out that inflation has been a moving target this year. It started at 2.2%, climbed to 4.4% by May, then eased back to 3.5% in June. That kind of swing makes forecasting tricky.
“That kind of instability can throw off forecasts,” Benton said, “but our model is designed to avoid chasing every spike and dip, which has kept our predictions on a relatively steady course.”
AARP’s Johnson echoed that caution. “There’s a lot of uncertainty about how food and, especially, energy prices will play out over the next two months. This is not set in stone.”
When Will You Know for Sure?
The official 2027 COLA will be announced on October 14, after the BLS releases the September inflation report. Once confirmed, the new rate takes effect with your January payments.
So mark October 14 on your calendar. That is the day the guessing stops and the real number lands.
In the meantime, the estimates suggest your check will go up a bit more next year than it did this year.
